Reply #2 by backlinktalk
Editorial follow-up: identical sequences can feel very different
Under the fair, independent coin model, HHHHH and HTHTH each have probability 1/32 before the five tosses. The first looks less random to many readers, but choosing one specific sequence gives the same calculation. An alternating sequence is not inherently more likely. The apparent surprise changes when the question concerns a whole category of sequences rather than one named sequence.